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WP-08 Overlapping generations economy, environmental externalities , and taxation Print E-mail

Dao Nguyen Thang

It is shown in this paper that from overlapping generations of the economy along with the environment destroying itself and pollution resulting from both consumption and production, there always exists an inter-temporal equilibrium to determine the competitive steady state. This steady state is compared with the equilibrium steady state in the social planner's point of view.

 
WP-07 Impact of Stimulus Package on Firm-level Performance Print E-mail

Trung Thanh and the VEPR research team

Our analyses on the PCI 2009 survey show that the positive impacts of the loan subsidy program upon firm performance is not very significant. The size of the impact on labor employment before and after the subsidy program was introduced is found to be relatively small. Firms in the mining sector or of medium size seem to have a propensity to employ more labor rather than have more investment in machinery or equipment. This might imply that the subsidy package has helped these firms in short-term performance but not in the longer term.

 
WP-06 Swimming against the current: Social relations and self-subsistence in the market economy Print E-mail

Tran Thu Ha (Queensland University, Australia)

Abstract

The market-centric development is driven on the belief that social order can be most efficiently achieved by individuals pursuing self-interest in a self-regulated economy (Gill 1995: 55). This paper challenges this belief by contending that individuals are not strictly self-interested and the self-regulated economy is actually regulated by corporations instead of the state.  

 
WP-05 Regional Integration in East Asia and Its Impacts on Welfare and Sectoral Output in Vietnam Print E-mail

Minh Thu (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)

Abstract

Economic impacts of some current and hypothetical regional Foreign Trade Agreements on Vietnam’s welfare and sectoral output are assessed using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Trade facilitation and endogenously determined sectoral productivity, which are part of the liberalization process, are incorporated in the model. The results show marginal gain of welfare for Vietnam and other members of FTAs. Welfare gains for Vietnam, as well as for some other ASEAN countries, are highest under ASEAN-China FTA. The results also reveal the importance of liberalizing the rice sector. When rice is excluded from trade liberalization, welfare gains of rice exporting and importing countries fall significantly. At the sectoral level, Vietnam’s manufacturing sectors expand thanks to increase in output of textiles, garment, leather products and machinery. Agricultural production would expand if rice is liberalized, but contract otherwise.

 

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WP-04 Dynamic Demographics and Economic Growth in Vietnam Print E-mail

Nguyen Thi Minh

Abstract

This paper is an empirical study into the effect of the age-structure of the population on economic growth in Vietnam. The statistics show that in recent years, Vietnam’s demographics have been changing remarkably with an increase in the labor force as well as a decrease in the dependency ratio. This change offers a great opportunity for the economy to enhance its economic growth in the short and medium terms at least. Our estimated results from regression models also indicate that Vietnam has utilized this opportunity: the change in demographics has contributed up to 15 percent of economic growth during the last five years. Secondly, while being categorized as dependent, the elderly do not seem to have a negative impact on economic growth, however young children do.

Vietnam’s population demographic will probably shift from a favorable spread of young people to an aging population in about ten years. Therefore, it is very important for the Vietnamese government to take advantage of this dividend period in order to improve human capital and technology, in addition to preparing for a coming period of demographic debt. In addition, building up sound pension and health care systems in the medium term is also crucial.

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