Thông báo: Seminar Nghiên cứu Kinh tế và Chính sách số 42

VEPR xin trân trọng kính mời các chuyên gia kinh tế, các nhà nghiên cứu đến từ các viện nghiên cứu, trường đại học, các nghiên cứu sinh và các sinh viên quan tâm đến tham dự buổi seminar với chủ đề: “Effects Of Asean Free Trade Area (AFTA) On Intra-Regional Trade Flows: Evidence From Automotive Industry”.

Diễn giả: ThS. Lê Minh Phượng

Thời gian: 09h30 – 11h30, thứ Sáu, ngày 17/7/2020
Địa điểm: Phòng Nghiên cứu VEPR, khu 14C, mặt sau Kí túc xá Đại học Ngoại ngữ, Cầu Giấy, Hà Nội

Thông tin về diễn giả: Phuong received a Master's Degree in Public Policy from Vietnam Japan University in 2019.

Nội dung nghiên cứu: Regional Free Trade Agreement such as ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) has been expected to increase the trade flows among member countries since its establishment in 1992. Using a modified gravity equation, the study aims to empirically investigate the effects of ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) on intra-regional trade flows of automotive industry for the period of 1993-2018. The study mostly pays particular attention to the period after signing AFTA as well as concerning its wider “new version” – ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) in force from 2010. By applying PPML model and multiple fixed effects method, the estimation results suggest that AFTA has resulted trade creation effects among AFTA members, trade diversion effects in export flows and import flows with non-AFTA members. Also, a positive and significant trade creation effects from the tariff elimination under the Common Effective Preferential Trade (CEPT) Scheme on both export and import flows of automobile among AFTA member countries. In addition, the analysis reveals that the elasticities of tariff reduction are too different between ASEAN countries. Finally, although AFTA has been successful in promoting intra-regional trade in the case of automotive industry, the estimation results argue that further expansion tariff from 2018 to zero percent at all members will be achieving more trade creation effect for ASEAN countries. 

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